Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.760213 13.204622 14.862269 16.930515 19.478673 22.566516 26.674558
2024-10-20 9.607327 11.255013 13.281555 16.022994 19.746074 24.811659 32.599677
2024-10-27 8.307438 9.992983 12.159566 15.252652 19.750927 26.426956 37.980222
2024-11-03 8.279901 10.289506 13.019716 17.202061 23.886030 35.162587 58.827596
2024-11-10 7.931362 10.085942 13.132310 18.052456 26.525071 42.470793 82.755550
2024-11-17 7.217439 9.285501 12.269871 17.225680 26.113879 43.926629 94.531917
2024-11-24 6.789060 8.848660 11.890029 17.104354 26.916441 48.166275 118.862796
2024-12-01 6.405109 8.439674 11.503120 16.901838 27.502924 52.175533 148.708895
2024-12-08 6.112580 8.140942 11.254530 16.896084 28.473928 57.610591 196.437951
2024-12-15 5.898118 7.941989 11.142531 17.113547 29.967327 65.329873 283.671103
2024-12-22 5.576225 7.553628 10.684153 16.620373 29.752255 67.850075 348.700773
2024-12-29 5.385038 7.357256 10.529014 16.687492 30.873721 75.557450 529.438461
2025-01-05 5.054364 6.935536 9.985255 15.979651 30.085426 76.563057 657.474066
2025-01-12 4.729937 6.507895 9.404729 15.142442 28.827788 75.256425 749.714526
2025-01-19 4.453271 6.143573 8.911245 14.435075 27.789895 74.468594 877.854541
2025-01-26 4.574733 6.430941 9.579230 16.220540 34.000229 113.328863 45765.649954
2025-02-02 4.535129 6.447450 9.760910 16.996340 37.708803 148.710267 NaN
2025-02-09 4.303410 6.126680 9.294370 16.242105 36.306160 146.621562 NaN
2025-02-16 4.167749 5.963361 9.113038 16.131278 37.053035 163.716068 NaN
2025-02-23 4.032805 5.794632 8.910127 15.946202 37.506803 180.110743 NaN
2025-03-02 3.927773 5.672468 8.788027 15.940941 38.625119 207.377940 NaN
2025-03-09 3.851949 5.597222 8.751078 16.139677 40.605286 254.456309 NaN
2025-03-16 3.711143 5.401791 8.467040 15.688798 39.897986 262.149057 NaN